Wednesday, July 16, 2014

County Commissioner Democrat race – primary 2014

The only race that was interesting in the 2014 primary was the Democrats race for County Commissioner. The reason is that this race helps us judge the support for Anne Schuster by precinct. If one assumes that people voting for Schuster’s opponents do not want Schuster as County Commissioner, these people may prefer Jerry Jackson to Anne Schuster. It is our job to convince them of this. And, of course, convince all non-Democrats to vote for Jerry.

As expected, the precincts in Corvallis and immediately surrounding Corvallis voted for Schuster. The precincts further away voted for Malone or Kreth. As can be seen from the turnout, only a few precincts have more Republicans than Democrats and they are not in Corvallis. However, the Republicans in the countryside tended to turnout in greater percentages than those in Corvallis.

For those of you that are numbers junkies, as I am, there are two tables below. The first is the turnout by precinct, and the second shows the fractions of Democrats voting for Shuster, her opponents, and not voting.

As one can see, there are many more Democrats in the county than there are Republicans. However, the largest precinct, eleven, has more Republicans than Democrats and a larger fraction of Republicans turned out than Democrats. Moreover, the Democrats in that precinct preferred Malone or Kreth to Schuster. That precinct is North Albany – a fertile place for Jerry, and Betsy Close, to look for votes.

We need to get out every vote in Benton County that we can persuade to vote for our candidates. However, to be efficient, we need to work over the areas with the most Republicans, disgruntled Democrats, Independents, and non-aligned voters first. If you need a voter list and a list of how many people in the different parties live on each street in your get-out-the-vote effort, send me an email at and I will send you the lists. You can download precinct maps from the Benton County website in the map section.

Figure 1: Voter turnout in Benton County for Primary race 2014

Click image to view larger - (then click in black area to return here)

Figure 2: Numbered Key Canvas
Click image to view larger - (then click in black area to return here)

The complete list of races by precinct is on the Benton County website. However, the list is password protected. I prevailed on the election office to put them in text format so I could actually use them. If you would like to massage the numbers yourself, again send me an email at and I will send you the file.

John H. Detweiler

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